doomed, but Howsmyn only chuckled.
âThe Group of Four can demand whatever they want, Ahlvyno. I doubt theyâre going to be stupid enough to issue that particular decree, but, then, theyâve already done some spectacularly stupid things, so itâs always possible Iâm wrong. In fact, I rather hope I am and that they do try it. Even if they do, though, itâs not going to happen.â
âNo?â Ironhill sat back in his chair. âWhy?â
âWhy do I wish they would? Or why do I think itâs not going to happen even if they do?â
âBoth.â
âI wish they would because giving orders you know wonât be obeyed is one of the best ways I know to destroy your own authority. And the reason an order like that wouldnât be obeyed is that no one in Haven or Howard can possibly provide the goods those markets require. I donât mean just that they canât provide them as cheaply as we can, Ahlvyno, although thatâs certainly true, as well. What I mean is that they literally donât have the capacity to provide them at all . And that even if they had the capacity, or developed it as quickly as possible, they still wouldnât have the ability to transport those goods at anything like the economies of cost we can achieve.â Howsmyn shook his head. âThatâs one of the minor details the Group of Four left out of their calculations, actually. Iâm astonished Duchairn didnât warn the other three what would happen if they succeeded in what they had in mind.â
âWould it really have been that bad for them, Ehdwyrd?â Gray Harbor asked, and Howsmyn shrugged.
âIt wouldâve been bad, Rayjhis. Maybe not as bad as I think it would have been, I suppose, if Iâm going to be fair. After all, my perspective is bound to be shaped by my own business interests and experience. Still, I think most peopleâincluding a lot of people right here in the Kingdomâdonât understand how thoroughly weâve come to dominate the worldâs markets. There was a reason Trynair chose King Haarahldâs supposed ambition to control the entire worldâs merchant traffic as his pretext for supporting Hektor and Nahrmahn against us. He knows there are plenty of people in Dohlar, Desnair, Harchongâeven the Republicâwho deeply resent our domination of the carrying trade. And quite a few of themâthe smarter ones, to be honestâresent their own growing dependency on our manufactories, as well.
âAll of thatâs true, but their resentment canât change the reality, and the reality is that better than halfâprobably closer to two-thirds, actuallyâof the worldâs merchant galleons fly the Charisian flag. And another reality is that somewhere around two-thirds of the manufactured goods those galleons transport are made right here in Charis, as well. And a third reality is that it takes four times as long and costs five or six times as much to transport the same goods to their ultimate destinations overland as it does to ship them by sea. If, of course, itâs even possible to ship them overland in the first place. Itâs just a bit difficult to get something from Siddarmark to Tarot by wagon, after all. Thereâs this little thing called the Tarot Channel in the way.â
One or two of the others looked dubious. Not at his analysis of the manufacture and transport of goods. That was something any Charisian understood on an almost instinctual level. Some of them clearly thought Howsmynâs assumptions were overly optimistic, however. Ironhill appeared to be one of them; Gray Harbor and Cayleb did not, and behind his own outwardly expressionless guardsmanâs face, Merlin frowned thoughtfully. He wasnât certain of Howsmynâs actual numbers. No one on Safehold kept that sort of statistic, so anything Howsmyn said could be no more than an informed estimate. On the other