According to Chandrasekhar’s result, this is toomuch for the unseen object to be a white dwarf. It is also too large a mass tobe a neutron star. It seems, therefore, that it must be a black hole.There are other models to explain Cygnus X-I that do not include a blackhole, but they are all rather far-fetched. A black hole seems to be the onlyreally natural explanation of the observations. Despite this, I have a bet withKip Thorne of the California Institute of Technology that in fact Cygnus X-Idoes not contain a black hole. This is a form of insurance policy for me. I havedone a lot of work on black holes, and it would all be wasted if it turned outthat black holes do not exist. But in that case, I would have the consolation ofwinning my bet, which would bring me four years of the magazine Private Eye.
If black holes do exist, Kip will get only one year of Penthouse, because whenwe made the bet in 1975, we were 80 percent certain that Cygnus was a blackhole. By now I would say that we are about 95 percent certain, but the bet hasyet to be settled.
There is evidence for black holes in a number of other systems in our galaxy,and for much larger black holes at the centers of other galaxies and quasars.One can also consider the possibility that there might be black holes withmasses much less than that of the sun. Such black holes could not be formedby gravitational collapse, because their masses are below the Chandrasekharmass limit. Stars of this low mass can support themselves against the force ofgravity even when they have exhausted their nuclear fuel. So, low-mass blackholes could form only if matter were compressed to enormous densities by verylarge external pressures. Such conditions could occur in a very big hydrogenbomb. The physicist John Wheeler once calculated that if one took all theheavy water in all the oceans of the world, one could build a hydrogen bombthat would compress matter at the center so much that a black hole would becreated. Unfortunately, however, there would be no one left to observe it.A more practical possibility is that such low-mass black holes might have beenformed in the high temperatures and pressures of the very early universe. Blackholes could have been formed if the early universe had not been perfectlysmooth and uniform, because then a small region that was denser than aver-age could be compressed in this way to form a black hole. But we know thatthere must have been some irregularities, because otherwise the matter in theuniverse would still be perfectly uniformly distributed at the present epoch,instead of being clumped together in stars and galaxies.
Whether or not the irregularities required to account for stars and galaxieswould have led to the formation of a significant number of these primordialblack holes depends on the details of the conditions in the early universe. Soif we could determine how many primordial black holes there are now, wewould learn a lot about the very early stages of the universe. Primordial blackholes with masses more than a thousand million tons-the mass of a largemountain-could be detected only by their gravitational influence on othervisible matter or on the expansion of the universe. However, as we shalllearn in the next lecture, black holes are not really black after all: They glowlike a hot body, and the smaller they are, the more they glow. So, paradoxi-cally, smaller black holes might actually turn out to be easier to detect thanlarge ones.
The Theory of Everything: The Origin and Fate of the Universe
Chapter 4 - FOURTH LECTURE - BLACK HOLES AIN’T SO BLACK
Before 1970, my research on general relativity had concentrated mainly onthe question of whether there had been a big bang singularity. However,one evening in November of that year, shortly after the birth of my daughter,Lucy, I started to think about black holes as I was getting into bed. My disabil-ity made this rather a slow process, so I had plenty of time. At that date therewas no precise