The Case of the Drowning Men by Eponymous Rox Read Free Book Online Page B

last time they partied. Therefore, on any given Friday night in downtown La Crosse there may be up to 1,140 very drunk 18-24 year old male UW-L students downtown. Even if the number of male UW-L students downtown was one-tenth of this estimate, there would be 114 drunken UW-L males downtown. Many may wander about after the bars close, some will wander toward the river. Every now and then, someone will fall in and drown.
    “What about the ‘coincidences’? Let’s take a close look at these. They are what we call in the social sciences ‘illusory correlations’ – things that may appear related but are not or are explained by other events. Several websites now advance the theory that there is a serial killer loose in the upper Midwest praying on young college men [indicating] the following ‘coincidences’ among the victims:
    1.        Mostly White males between the ages of 17-27
    2.        Lived in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana or Chicago the area surrounding Lake Michigan
    3.        Mostly students or recent graduates
    4.        Most were high-achieving
    5.        Most were in good physical condition or athletes
    6.        Last seen out drinking with friends or at a party
    7.        Were under the influence of alcohol
    8.        Became separated from the friends with whom they started the evening
    9.        All disappeared between the hours of 10 PM and 4 AM
    10.     Were reported missing by friends or family
    11.     The closed cases were all determined to be accidental drowning or possible suicides
    12.     Many of those found drowned were found in the Mississippi River, Red Cedar River or Lake Michigan
    13.     Victim's body, if found, had no signs of strangulation - gunshot - stab or other obvious sign of murder
    14.     All disappeared between the months of September and April.
    “Where is the coincidence with these numbers? These are college towns with rivers. In college towns, there are many college-aged males. The upper Midwest is overwhelmingly European American. College men who drink tend to do so in bars. College men who drink tend to do so from 10 pm -4 am and between the months of September and April. Easily 30% of college males might match these characteristics. If you go back to our conservative estimate of 114 drunk male college students downtown, that would be 34 men every Friday night who fit the ‘coincidence’ profile.
    “We’ve both heard a lot of questions the past few days.
    “Q:‘Why don’t more students drown in Madison?’ A: Madison has a lake not a river. It gradually becomes deeper and is not moving swiftly.
    “Q: ‘Why would he go to the river?’ A: Is it really so hard to imagine? He feels drunk. He thinks walking in the fresh air will ‘clear his head.’ He walks in the direction of the river. He feels nauseous and leans over the river to vomit, or he decides to splash his face with water. He slips. The river is 18 feet deep and moving rapidly.
    “Q: ‘Why aren’t there female victims?’ A: Women are much more likely to be socialized to the dangers of being alone – especially while drinking. They have learned, and use, elaborate systems for checking on one another when going downtown or into other situations where they might be vulnerable to victimization.
    “Does any of this make Jared’s death any less tragic? No. However, we should not jump to the extremely unlikely explanation that a serial killer is responsible rather than the extremely likely explanation that his death is an unfortunate mix of a high level of intoxication and a cold, swift river. Perhaps even more of a concern is that it is somehow more comforting for us to think that Jared’s death was caused by something we cannot control (e.g., a serial killer) rather than a cause we can control (not getting drunk, always keeping an eye on your buddies to ensure their safe return home). It is often harder to accept explanations