August, with no deciphering of any message after March, it was clear that something more fundamental was wrong. They couldn't even get to the first step, of reading a single message with brute force, no matter where they started. Henryk asked the core group of four to set aside everything for a brainstorming meeting the first Monday of September, after everyone was back from vacation.
He started the meeting with a broad statement, what everyone already knew: they'd been unable to crack anything for five months. The General Staff in Warsaw was impatient, wondering if they had hit a stone wall. But that wasn't the worst of it. Over the weekend, Jerzy had run into a problem with the Enigma machines.
"Suppose we look at this methodically," Henryk suggested. “Let's look first at the puzzle we've had for the past five months, then turn to Jerzy's problem. But, before we begin, I think the time has come to start keeping detailed records of what we've done, what's worked and what hasn't."
All eyes turned toward Anna. "There goes not only topology, but my whole university program," she thought. But she nodded. In spite of the drudgery of note-taking and record-keeping, the project would be just as interesting as university work. Also, it could be a whole lot more important: the security of the nation might depend on it.
“Thank you, Anna. Now, let's come back to our first problem: What could the Germans have done five months ago to make their messages indecipherable?"
"One," responded Jerzy, "they may have scrapped the old machine, and are now working with a completely different design."
"Well," said Henryk, taken aback, "that certainly puts it on the line. If so, it seems that we have only two ways out. We might be able to steal one of their new machines. I wonder what kind of talent we have in our jails?" he mused, only half joking. "The second option—try to reconstruct the new machine from the messages we've intercepted. What do you think, Marian?"
"That would be tough—much tougher than the first time I did it back in 1932, because then I had both messages and wheel settings. If it's the same machine, with different wheels, I could calculate how many intercepts of the same type—Blue, say—we would need to reconstruct the wheels. I bet it will be a pile, but I may be able to have some rough calculations by the end of the week.
"If they've done something other than introduce new wheels—for example, if they're now using a bigger keyboard and larger wheels to accommodate numbers as well as letters, all bets are off. In that case, I don't know what to suggest."
Jerzy picked up his line of thought. “Another possibility: The Germans may be using double encryption. That is, once a message goes through the Enigma scrambler, they may send it through a second encryption—for example, with a codebook, or by somehow modifying the Enigma machine."
"In other words," responded Henryk, "we're not sure if we just want to steal a new machine, or whether we want our burglars to pick up codebooks while they're at it…. Any other thoughts?"
There was no response. “Let's come back to this later,” said Henryk. “It's time for Jerzy's problem.”
Jerzy puffed on his cigar, laying a pall of smoke over one end of the conference table. "When I got back from vacation, I dropped by the office late Saturday evening and found something peculiar. The staff were all confused. The two machines were no longer giving the same results. I called Henryk about it yesterday. "
There was thunderstruck silence.
"Are they sure ?" asked Marian.
"Yes, they're sure, and, what's more, they're right . I checked. When the wheels are all set to AAA, one machine gives T when you press the A key, as always. The other gives R."
"How long this has been going on?" Marian asked. He seemed indignant. But at the misbehaving machine, or at the delay in letting him know?
"Just since Saturday.... Late last week, one of the machines was balking. The wheels