Trick or Treatment by Simon Singh, Edzard Ernst M.D. Read Free Book Online Page B

with more data from Hill and Doll’s ongoing fifty-year study – it reinforced in explicit detail the deadly effects of tobacco. For example, the analysis of British doctors showed that those born in the 1920s who smoked were three times more likely to die in their middle age than their non-smoking colleagues. More specifically, 43 per cent of smokers compared to 15 per cent of non-smokers died between the ages of 35 and 69 years.
    Doll was as shocked as anyone by the damning evidence against smoking: ‘I myself did not expect to find smoking was a major problem. If I’d had to bet money at that time, I would have put it on something to do with the roads and motorcars’. Doll and Hill did not start their research in order to achieve a specific result, but instead they were merely curious and concerned about getting to the truth. More generally, well-designed scientific studies and trials are not engineered to achieve an expected outcome, but rather they should be transparent and fair, and those conducting the research should be open to whatever results emerge.
    The British Doctors Survey and similar studies were attacked by the tobacco industry, but Doll, Hill and their colleagues fought back and demonstrated that rigorous scientific research can establish the truth with such a level of authority that even the most powerful organizations cannot deny the facts for long. The link between smoking and lung cancer was proved beyond all reasonable doubt because of evidence emerging from several independent sources, each one confirming the results of the other. It is worth reiterating that progress in medicine requires independent replication – i.e. similar studies by more than one research group showing similar findings. Any conclusion that emerges from such a body of evidence is likely to be robust.
    Hill and Doll’s research ultimately led to a raft of measures designed to persuade us not to smoke, which in turn has resulted in a 50 per cent decrease in smoking in many parts of the developed world. Unfortunately, smoking still remains the single biggest cause of preventable deaths worldwide, because significant new markets are opening up in the developing world. Also, for many smokers the addiction is so great that they ignore or deny the scientific evidence. When Hill and Doll first published their research in the British Medical Journal , an accompanying editorial recounted a very telling anecdote: ‘It is said that the reader of an American magazine was so disturbed by an article on the subject of smoking and cancer that he decided to give up reading.’
    While we were writing this book, the British Medical Journal reminded the world of the contribution made by Hill and Doll – it named the research that established the risks of smoking among a list of the fifteen greatest medical breakthroughs since the journal was launched 166 years ago. Readers had been asked to vote for their favourite breakthrough in what seemed like the medical equivalent of Pop Idol . Although this high-profile popularity contest might have seemed vulgar to some academics, it made two important points, particularly in the context of this chapter.
    First, every breakthrough on the list illustrated the power of science to improve and save lives. For example, the list included oral rehydration, which helps recovery from diarrhoea and which has saved 50 million children’s lives in the last twenty-five years. The list also included antibiotics, germ theory and immunology, which together have helped to cure a whole range of diseases, thereby saving hundreds of millions of lives. Vaccines, of course, were on the list, because they have prevented many diseases from even occurring, thereby saving hundreds of millions more lives. And awareness of the risks of smoking has probably saved a similar number of lives.
    The second point is that the concept of evidence-based medicine was also recognized among the top fifteen breakthroughs, because it too is a