Bellwether by Connie Willis Read Free Book Online

this.”
    “That’s okay,” I said. “I’ve got to go back to my office, but I’ll walk you as far as the stairs.”
    “Okay, well, so my idea was that by precisely measuring every factor in a chaotic system, I could isolate the causes of chaos.”
    “Flip,” I said. “The cause of chaos.”
    He laughed. “The other causes of chaos. I know talking about the causes of chaos sounds like a contradiction in terms, since chaotic systems are supposed to be systems where ordinary cause and effect break down. They’re nonlinear, which means there are so many factors, operating in such an interconnected way, that they’re impossible to predict.” Like fads, I thought.
    “But there are laws governing them. We’ve mathematically defined some of them: entropy, interior instabilities, and iteration, which is—”
    “The butterfly effect,” I said.
    “Right. A tiny variable feeds back into the system and then the feedback feeds back, until it influences the system all out of proportion to its size.”
    I nodded. “A butterfly flapping its wings in L.A. can cause a typhoon in Hong Kong. Or an all-staff meeting at HiTek.”
    He looked delighted. “You know something about chaos?”
    “Only from personal experience,” I said.
    “Yeah,” he said, “it does seem to be the order of the day around here. Well, so, anyway, my project was to calculate the effects of iteration and entropy and see if they accounted for chaos or if there was another factor involved.”
    “Was there?”
    He looked thoughtful. “Chaos theorists think the Heisenberg uncertainty principle means that chaotic systems are inherently unpredictable. Verhoest believes that prediction is possible, but he’s proposed there’s another force driving chaos, an X factor that’s influencing its behavior.”
    “Moths,” I said.
    “What?”
    “Or locusts. Something other than butterflies.”
    “Oh. Right. But he’s wrong. My theory is that iteration can account for everything that goes on in a chaotic system, once all the factors are known and properly measured. I never got the chance to find out. We were only able to do two runs before I got my funding cut. They didn’t show an increase in predictability, which means either I was wrong or I didn’t have all the variables.” He stopped, his hand on a door handle, and I realized we were standing outside his door. I had apparently walked him all the way down to Bio.
    “Well,” I said, wishing I had more time to analyze his tie, “I guess I’d better get back to work. I’ve got to brace myself for Flip’s new assistant. And fill out my funding allocation form.” I looked at it ruefully. “At least it’s short.”
    He peered blankly at me through his thick glasses.
    “Only twenty-two pages,” I said, holding it up.
    “The funding forms aren’t printed up yet,” he said. “We’re supposed to get them tomorrow.” He pointed at the form I was holding. “That’s the new simplified supply procurement form. For ordering paper clips.”
     

     
     
     
    Mankind, of course,
     
    always has been and always will be, under the yoke of the
     
    butterflies in the matter of social rites,
     
    dress, entertainment, and the expenditure which these things involve.
    hugh shetfield, the sovereignty of society, 1909
     
     
     
    miniature golf (1927—31)—– Recreation fad of small golf courses with eighteen very short holes complicated by windmills, waterfalls, and tiny sand traps. Its popularity was easily explainable. It was a cheap place to take a Depression date, had a low skill threshold with multiple achievement levels, and let you pretend for a couple of hours that you were part of the refined country-club set. Over forty thousand courses sprang up across the country, and at its height it was so popular it was even a threat to the movies, and the studios forbade their actors to be seen playing miniature golf. Died from overexposure.
     
    The source of the Colorado River doesn’t look like