predicted by Dr. Downing and Dr. Johnstone Stoney.”
One starts to enjoy this disguisement, thinking of virtually all the astronomers in the world who had predicted the return of the Leonids, and the finding, by Bryant, of two who had not, and his recording only the opinion of these two, coloring so as to look like another triumph—but we may thank our sorely stimulated suspiciousness for still richer enjoyment—
That even these two said no such saving thing—
Nature, Nov. 9, 1899:
Dr. Downing and Dr. Stoney, instead of predicting failure of the Leonids to appear, advise watch for them several hours later than had been calculated.
I conceive of the astronomers’ fictitious paradise as malarchitectural with corrupted equations, and paved with rotten symbols. Seeming pure, white fountains of formal vanities—boasts that are gushing from decomposed triumphs. We shall find their furnishings shabby with tarnished comets. We turn expectantly to the subject of comets; or we turn cynically to the subject. We turn maliciously to the subject of comets. Nevertheless, threading the insecurities of our various feelings, is a motif that is the steady essence of Neo-astronomy:
That, in celestial phenomena, as well as in all other fields of research, the irregular, or the unformulable, or the uncapturable, is present in at least equal representation with the uniform: that, given any clear, definite, seemingly unvarying thing in the heavens, coexistently is something of wantonness or irresponsibility, bizarre and incredible, according to the standards of purists—that the science of Astronomy concerns itself with only one aspect of existence, because of course there can be no science of the obverse phenomena—which is good excuse for so enormously disregarding, if we must have the idea that there are real sciences, but which shows the hopelessness of positively attempting.
The story of the Comets, as not told in Mr. Chambers’ book of that title, is almost unparalleled in the annals of humiliation. When a comet is predicted to return, that means faith in the Law of Gravitation. It is Newtonism that comets, as well as planets, obey the Law of Gravitation, and move in one of the conic sections. When a comet does not return when it “should,” there is no refuge for an astronomer to say that planets perturbed it, because one will ask why he did not include such factors in his calculations, if these phenomena be subject to mathematical treatment. In his book, Mr. Chambers avoids, or indicates that he never heard of, a great deal that will receive cordiality from us, but he does publish a list of predicted comets that did not return. Writing, in 1909, he mentions others for which he had hopes:
Brooks’ First Periodic Comet (1886, IV)—“We must see what the years 1909 and 1910 bring forth.” This is pretty indefinite anticipation—however, nothing was brought forth, according to Monthly Notices, R.A.S., 1909 and 1910: the Brooks’ Comet that is recorded is Brooks’, 1889. Giacobini’s Second Periodic Comet (1900, III)—not seen in 1907—“so we shall not have a chance of knowing more about it until 1914.” No more known about it in 1914. Borelly’s Comet (1905, II)—“Its expected return, in 1911 or 1912, will be awaited with interest.” This is pretty indefinite awaiting: it is now said that this comet did return upon Sept. 19, 1911. Denning’s Second Periodic Comet (1894, I)—expected, in 1909, but not seen up to Mr. Chambers’ time of writing—no mention in Monthly Notices. Swift’s Comet, of Nov. 20, 1894—“must be regarded as lost, unless it should be found in December, 1912.” No mention of it in Monthly Notices.
Three comets were predicted to return in 1913—not one of them returned (Monthly Notices, 74-326).
Once upon a time, armed with some of the best and latest cynicisms, I was hunting for prey in the Magazine of Science, and came upon an account of a comet that was expected in the year