started to hear theories about the ‘serial killer’ who prays [sic] on young men in Midwestern college towns with rivers. In response to these theories, we must now be the professors that we are trained to be, as well as the members of the grieving community that we are. Throughout your college careers, you will be asked to engage in critical thinking. Nowhere is critical thinking more important than when you apply your education and training to your own lives and experiences. We implore you to use your critical thinking skills when you look at this situation.
“When medical personnel are trained in the diagnosis of problems, they are often told this story. ‘ When you hear hooves behind you, when you turn around you should expect to see horses, not zebras.’ In other words, the most common event should be the diagnosis you first expect. In the case of Jared Dion and other students who have drowned in the past several years, the ‘horse’ diagnosis is ‘alcohol’ while the ‘zebra’ diagnosis is ‘serial killer.’ Other zebra diagnoses include the theories that a cop and/or a cab driver are involved in the drownings.
“Let’s take a look at some of the data that allow us to feel more secure about the idea that it was a plain old tragic accident that took the life of this student and the others who drowned.
“First, researchers have long been able to identify the development of urban myths (Knight, 2002). Two websites that present lists and analyses of urban legends are Snopes and Urbanlegends. The Snopes website writes that ‘A tale is considered to be an urban legend if it circulates widely, is told and re-told with differing details (or exists in multiple versions), and is said to be true.’ Scholars believe that individuals are prone to accept stories that do not directly contradict their personal experiences because they have an underlying need to increase their understanding of the world. In addition, conspiracy theories are kin to urban myths. Researchers know that the more ‘unexpected’ and larger the event is, the more likely the conspiracy theory (Knight, 2002). Consequently, we don’t think that a junkie in New York who overdosed is still alive, but perhaps Elvis Presley might be. We don’t think that most folks who die in car accidents were victims of a plot to kill them, but Princess Di was.
“Second, the data have to inform our decisions and how we view this event. If you were to find a squashed mouse in an elephant’s cage, how often would you jump to the explanation that a serial killer was involved? The elephant in this case is alcohol. Every single case has involved blood alcohol levels at or above the .20 level. Can many of you name times when you were “totally trashed” and nothing bad occurred? Of course. Nevertheless, that does not negate the fact that we know that alcohol slows the physical and mental responses and mitigates our ability to read and respond to cues.
“The leading cause of death for young men aged 15-24 is unintentional accidents. Men are more likely than women are to die because of an accident. Homicide and suicide are the next two most common causes of death for men aged 15-24. Alcohol has been found to be a factor in many of these events (Hingson, et al., 2002).
“The National Safety Council reports that in 1999, 647 15-24 year-olds died due to drowning, 592 were male. Indeed, males in this age range have a drowning rate that is ten times higher than that of females (3.1 vs. .3 per 100,000, respectively). In comparison, homicide researchers estimate that less than one percent of all homicides are committed by serial killers (Fox & Levin, 1999, p. 167).
“Let’s take a look using data. We have 8,148 undergraduates here at UW-L, 3,559 are male. Approximately 40% of males in college binge drink (or drink to get drunk) regularly (Hingson, et al., 2002). Data from 567 UW-L students suggests that 32% of UW-L males reported having 6 or more drinks the